Betting on the Future: Prediction Markets, Insider Trading and the Battle for Control

Event contracts and prediction markets are booming—Kalshi and Polymarket topped $45 billion in combined trading in August 2026 alone—and so is enforcement. Federal prosecutors have brought the first insider trading cases involving prediction markets: a U.S. Army soldier who allegedly leveraged classified intelligence and a tech engineer charged with exploiting internal company data, and the exchanges themselves have taken action against customers for violations of their trading rules. Meanwhile, New York has sued Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase and Gemini as illegal gambling operations. The Supreme Court may soon step into this fight as multiple petitions now sit at the Supreme Court. This program will cover how the CFTC, SEC, DOJ and the states are each claiming authority; how the CFTC's preemption fight with the states is unfolding; and insider trading law and other business risks in this space. It will also cover practical steps companies can take to update trading policies, surveillance tools, and training to mitigate any potential, future enforcement.